Traders
unwound dollar (USD) exposure last week amid US President Donald Trump’s
back-and-forth tariffs, which threaten to undermine confidence in US assets and
the economy. While a 90-day tariff reprieve has been granted to most nations,
the escalating trade tensions between the US and China pressure global supply
chains, potentially fuelling inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth.
Another
week, another round of tariffs
For
the Research Team here last week, it was a case of ‘Another Day, Another
Tariff’. Frankly, many market participants – myself included – struggled to
keep up.
Following
‘Liberation Day’ earlier this month – an event that saw Trump impose 10%
baseline tariffs on all nations and higher levies on approximately 60 countries
– the President staged a considerable U-turn last week, pausing higher tariffs
for 90 days and applying a 10% blanket tariff on all non-retaliatory countries.
Of course, while this was welcomed news – and risk assets demonstrated their
relief – we are far from free-trade bliss.
The
US and China remain at loggerheads after Trump excluded China from the temporary
halt and increased tariffs to an eye-popping 125% on goods exported to the US,
following Beijing’s 84% duties on all US imports. The tit-for-tat exchanges escalated
in the second half of the week, with the US imposing a tariff rate of 145% on
Chinese imports, to which China responded by slapping the US with 125% tariffs.
However, according to a policy release from the Ministry of Finance (MoF) last
Friday, China stated they will now ignore the US. The MoF noted: ‘At the
current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to
China. If the US continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the
US, China will ignore it’.
Amid
the ongoing uncertainties between the US and China, the economy is facing ‘considerable
uncertainty’, according to Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase. Economists
at JPMorgan also estimate a 50/50 chance of a recession occurring.
Additionally, Larry Fink, the Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, has indicated that
the US may already be in a recession.
Unfortunately,
this tit-for-tat US-China trade theme is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.
I do not see China backing down to the US – despite problems at home – and the
Trump administration has been downplaying the market impact; it is fair to say
that uncertainty will remain high and markets are on edge.
This
week’s focus?
Last
week’s macro slate revealed softer-than-expected US inflation on both the consumer
and producer side, though the market’s reaction was limited and did little to
slow the rise in US Treasury yields. It is also worth mentioning that consumer
sentiment data released from the University of Michigan came in much cooler
than expected, and inflation expectations surged.
For
many traders worldwide this week, despite the long Easter weekend ahead and the
focus remaining on tariff developments, the upcoming week does not lack tier-1
macro drivers. In
addition to updates from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada
(BoC) this week, US retail sales numbers will be closely watched, inflation data
from the UK, Australia, and New Zealand will also make the airwaves, as well as
employment data from the UK and Australia.
Kicking
off with the US, retail sales data are out on Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT and are
forecast to have firmed between February and March, up 1.4% from a meagre 0.2%.
Excluding autos, retail sales are also expected to tick higher to 0.4% from
0.3%. According to a ‘Consumer Checkpoint’ report from the Bank of America: ‘The
import content of consumer goods and services is substantial, raising the risk
of price rises from higher tariffs. In Bank of America data we find some
evidence that consumers were buying durables ahead of the introduction of
tariffs. The evidence is strongest in autos sales’.
Regarding
central banks, the BoC is making a show on Wednesday. As of writing, markets
are currently pricing in 11 bps of easing (about a 43% chance that the central
bank will reduce the overnight rate by 25 bps to 2.50%). I feel it is about a
50/50 chance that the BoC will pull the trigger again at this week’s meeting –
the central bank has cut rates in its last seven meetings. Economic activity growing
at an annualised pace of 2.6% in Q4 24, up from 2.2% in Q3 24, and headline
year-on-year (YY) inflation rising by 2.6% in February (note that the March CPI
inflation data will hit the wires on Tuesday) suggests the bank could hold the
overnight rate at 2.75% this week. On the other side of the fence, the BoC,
like many other central banks, are working in uncertain times and could opt to
reduce its interest rate given the uncertainty Trump’s tariffs bring to
Canada’s economy. According to Statistics Canada, the country is a dominant
trading partner to the US, with over 75% of its exports sent to the US.
We
also have the ECB up on Thursday. Swaps traders are fully pricing in that the
ECB will reduce all three benchmark rates by 25 bps; a cut this week would
lower the deposit rate to 2.25%. Unlike in Canada, eurozone inflation has
continued to trend in the right direction (inflation eased to 2.2% in March on
a YY basis, marking the lowest rate since late last year). Although the
European Union now face lower-than-expected US tariffs, the central bank is
expected to step in and shore up the economy amid risks to growth.
Market
outlook
The
first full trading week of April wrapped up with the USD taking a solid hit to
the midsection, down 3.0% according to the USD Index; this was despite a rally
in US Treasury yields across the curve. In the equity space, US indexes
teetered in and out of bear market territory but ultimately finished the week
positively, and Spot Gold (XAU/USD) chalked up a one-sided move to fresh
all-time highs of US$3,245.
The
USD Index ended the week shaking hands with monthly support between 98.72 and
99.67, though daily charts suggest further underperformance to at least 98.58.
The rebound in the S&P 500 still has some room to manoeuvre according to
the technical picture, targeting daily resistance from 5,570, while Gold shines
the spotlight on two daily support levels to watch this week: US$3,148 and
demand from US$3,000-US$3,058.
While
monitoring the upcoming macro events closely is important, most of the data
this week will take a backseat to any developments regarding tariffs.
Written by FP
Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
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