Gold Futures Analysis for Today – June 2025 Contract – April 28, 2025
Current Price at the time of this gold futures analysis: 3,293.5
Active Bias: Bearish below 3,305.5
Context and Market Insights:
Gold futures continue to demonstrate bearish momentum following consecutive failures to reclaim crucial Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Point of Control (POC) levels from both Friday and today. The inability to break and sustain above today’s VWAP (3,300) and the critical Friday POC (3,305) underscores significant selling pressure. This bearish dynamic indicates that sellers maintain control in the short-term outlook.
Bearish Scenario for Gold Futures Today (Primary Active Bias)
Bearish Threshold: 3,305.5
This key resistance is strategically placed just above today’s VWAP (3,300) and aligns closely with Friday’s POC (3,305), offering a robust resistance cluster.
Profit Targets for Short Positions:
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3,287.8 – Immediate bearish target to lock initial gains
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3,282.3 – Situated just above the Value Area Low (VAL) from April 23; critical for intraday traders
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3,277.2 – Near today’s 2nd Lower Standard Deviation VWAP; indicating extended intraday bearish momentum
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3,263.2 – Around the 3rd Lower Standard Deviation VWAP; suggests strong bearish control
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3,244.2 – A deeper, strategic level attractive for multi-session bearish traders
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3,238.2 – Extension target indicating persistent bearish strength
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3,234.0 – Further bearish extension signaling continued downside risk
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3,225.4 – Important deeper target anchored in volume clusters from April 14th–15th
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3,211.0 – Final bearish extension target; requires patience and disciplined position management
Risk Management Tip:
Consider fractionalizing your trades (e.g., micro futures or fractional CFDs) to incrementally secure gains. Gradually closing around 12% of your position at each profit target helps lock in profits, manage risk, and provide smoother returns.
Bullish Scenario for Gold Futures Today (Contingent Recovery Bias)
Bullish Threshold: 3,325
For the bullish scenario to activate, gold must show sustained buying interest with a clear confirmation of strength—specifically, at least two consecutive 30-minute candle closes above 3,325.
Profit Targets for Long Positions:
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3,334.4 – Initial bullish objective just below the VWAP from April 17
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3,352.0 – Just beneath the Value Area High (VAH) from April 24; important resistance to watch
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3,398.2 – Clearing above the VAL from April 21, indicating strengthened bullish momentum
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3,421.0 – Below the VAL of April 22, a key intermediate bullish goal
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3,438.5 – Under the POC of April 22; a significant level for swing traders
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3,489.7 – Final bullish extension target near VAH of April 22, indicative of a major bullish recovery if reached
Additional Market Considerations for Gold Trading Today :
Round Number Risk:
Gold is hovering near the psychologically important 3,300 level. Traders should anticipate heightened volatility, stop-hunting activity, and choppy price behavior in this zone. Price may oscillate unpredictably, underscoring the importance of disciplined entries and exits.
Dynamic Bias and Adaptability:
The active bias remains bearish; however, traders should remain agile, adapting swiftly to changing market conditions. Monitoring price behavior around defined bullish and bearish thresholds will help traders stay ahead of shifts in market sentiment.
Early-Week Liquidity Reminder:
Liquidity may be lighter early in the trading week, potentially amplifying price swings. Traders should adjust position sizes accordingly and be cautious of sudden, exaggerated moves.
Summary for Gold Traders and Investors on April 28, 2025:
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Primary Bearish Bias: Maintain bearish positioning below 3,305.5, utilizing clearly defined incremental profit-taking levels.
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Bullish Recovery Potential: Only activate bullish scenarios upon sustained confirmation above 3,325.
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Risk Management Priority: Employ fractional and partial exits at recommended levels to reduce risk, secure gains, and manage market volatility effectively.
Stay disciplined, adaptable, and responsive to evolving price dynamics around these critical gold futures levels.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading futures involves significant risk. Trade at your own risk.
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This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.