Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision still to come, an ‘on hold’ preview

ING preview the Reserve Bank of Australia decision due at 2.30pm Sydney time:

• 0430 GMT
• 0030 US Eastern time

Of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 13 expect a rise of 25bp to 4.35%, while 19 (including ourselves) expect no change to the current 4.1% cash rate target.

The main reasons for our decision are as follows:

• The RBA hiked in June, and although the data has been mixed, back-to-back hikes seem excessive with rates already at an elevated level.
• Moreover, the run of recent inflation data has been far more benign than was expected, and if last month’s finely balanced decision was pushed over the edge by higher-than-expected inflation, this month’s decision should result in no change by the same logic.
• Finally, there will be much better occasions for the RBA to hike in the months ahead if that remains necessary. September will be one of those, as the RBA can assess the impact of large electricity tariff increases which are due in July, and should be visible in CPI data by September. Also, favourable base effects drop out after July’s CPI release for several months, so it is not inconceivable that we see some backing up of inflation over the third quarter before it dips again into the year-end.

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Earlier previews:

• RBA preview – In May and June the Bank surprised with rate hikes … “here we go again”

• ANZ still expect a rate rise from the RBA next week, a +25bp cash rate hike
  • ANZ expects 25bps rate hike from RBA on Tues and scope for AUD/NZD rally next week
• After Australia’s better CPI data yesterday NAB still expect a July RBA rate hike
• Westpac reaffirms its forecst for a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike on July 4

• Only one of Australia big four banks expects the RBA cash rate to remain on hold this week

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source