- We had 2 jobs and 2 employment reports since last meeting and jobs data revisions
- Cites Beige Book
- A good place to start on what’s coming next is the SEP
- We will take it meeting by meeting
- We’re in the process of re-calibrating our policy stance, that will take place over time
- There is nothing in the SEP that suggests the Committee is in a rush
- We can go quicker, slower or pause if appropriate
- Our base case is to remove restriction and see how the economy reacts to that
- We had a good discussion on 25 vs 50 bps. There was broad support for 50 bps
- All 19 Fed officials saw at least 50 bps this year in the SEP
- Repeats ‘we’re going to take it meeting by meeting’
- We made a good, strong start to this and that’s a sign of our confidence that inflation is coming back to target
- We’re going to make our decisions as we go
- The labor market is in solid condition and our intention is to keep it there. You can say the same thing about the whole economy
- We think this is timely, we don’t think we’re behind
- You can take this as a sign that we want to be ahead
- I don’t think anyone should look at this and say ‘this is the new pace’
- We’re not hearing about rising layoffs from companies and not seeing that
- “The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong”
- Futher declines in job openings will translate more directly into unemployment
- The US economy is in a good place and our decision today is designed to keep it there
- We’re not declaring ‘mission accomplished’ on inflation but we’re encouraged
- We will get down to 2% inflation and ultimately we will get what we need out of housing services as well
- We might have cut rates in July if we got the jobs data sooner
Powell repeatedly said or hinted that the SEP pace (two more 25 bps cuts) is the base case and they will adjust around that. There was some dollar buying when he said “I don’t think anyone should look at this and say ‘this is the new pace'”
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source