- Inflation expectations remain moderate
- Recent uptick in oil prices has partly offset the “significant” appreciation in the euro
- If Iran-Israel ceasefire is confirmed, possible for further policy accommodation in the next six months
- Oil price alone is not a sufficient enough guide for our reaction function
- A neutral rate and a terminal rate are not exactly the same thing
- We will see how things evolve
The full interview can be found here (may be gated). They’re playing their cards close to their chest and keeping their options open for now. As things stand, markets are just pricing in ~23 bps of rate cuts by year-end.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.