ANZ preview the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on November 27. In brief:
- We expect a 50bp cut to 4.25% next week. That would be consistent with
RBNZ October messaging, economists’ forecasts, and market pricing.
Data since the October Monetary Policy Review has been mixed, but no
data looks likely to upset the apple cart. - Beyond this meeting, the data will decide, but with the OCR much closer
to neutral, our baseline expectation is that the RBNZ will reduce the pace
of easing to standard 25bp cuts, to reach a trough of 3.5% in May.
Hard to argue with ANZ, I think 50bp is baked in. Then the RBNZ has nearly 3 months until their next decision is due.
Posted yesterday:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source