Earlier this week, AUDUSD broke above a key swing area and the upper boundary of a consolidation range dating back to April 15, moving as high as 0.65135. The bullish breakout included a move above the 200-day moving average at 0.64587, signaling strong buying interest.
However, momentum faded. Following the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, the pair fell back below the 200-day MA, and on Thursday, a corrective rally stalled right at that key MA level as sellers leaned in and stalled the upside.
In today’s Asian session, buyers stepped in at a rising trendline support, helping to lift the pair back above the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. But gains were capped once again near the 200-hour MA at 0.64291.
Looking ahead, AUDUSD faces a cluster of resistance:
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200-hour MA: 0.64291
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100-hour MA: 0.64459
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200-day MA: 0.64588
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Swing area (red box): 0.6429–0.6442
Despite recent pullbacks, the pair remains closer to the highs for the year. Holding above the trendline and 4-hour 100-bar MA is constructive, but buyers need to reclaim and sustain a move above the 200-day MA to regain full control and build bullish confidence.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.