The AUDUSD made a run higher in early trading, but momentum stalled at a familiar resistance zone — just below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high, and near the swing high from two weeks ago.
That ceiling, around 0.6390–0.64136, remains a key upside barrier. Buyers made a push, but the failure to break through suggests a lack of conviction and opens the door for a bearish reversal.
The pair is now sliding back toward a cluster of key moving averages on the 4-hour chart — including the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs on the 4-hour chart and the 100 day MA — currently between 0.6305–0.6317 area. A move below this zone would tilt the bias back to the downside and potentially trigger further selling.
For now, the AUDUSD remains stuck in a battle between upside resistance and the moving average support base. Which side breaks will likely determine the next directional push.
Key technical levels:
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Resistance: 0.6390–0.64136 (recent high + 38.2% retracement)
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Support: 0.6305–0.6317 (cluster of moving averages)
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Bias: Neutral near-term, bearish if MAs break
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.