The AUDUSD is lower on the day and back below its 200-hour moving average for the 2nd time today. Earlier in the European session the price move below that moving average only to find support buyers near the high of a swing area between 0.6737 and 0.67546. The 50% midpoint of the move up from the July low is also in play within that area at 0.67466.
The subsequent move back to the upside took the price up to swing lows from Friday and Monday near 0.6787, before rotating back to the downside over the last few hours of trading in the US session. The US dollar has been moving higher against most currencies (a lower AUDUSD is a move higher in the USD). That move to the downside has taken the price back below its 200-hour moving average. Bearish
What now?
With sellers making the 2nd trip below the 200-hour moving average today, it is time for them to take more control. Getting below the 50% retracement of 0.67466 and the low of a swing area at 0.67374, would open the door for a move toward the 200-day moving average and 61.8% retracement of the July trading range near 0.6711. That area should be good support on the 1st test.
Conversely, if the break below the 200-hour moving average fails for the 2nd time, I would expect sellers to be angry on the failed break, and reverse the price back to the upside. Getting above 0.6786 would give buyers more confidence to push even higher.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source