The AUDUSD has been trending steadily higher over the past few weeks, with buyers showing a consistent appetite on dips and pushing the pair through a series of technical layers. The rally began from a lower swing area between 0.6407 and 0.6424, and has now extended all the way up toward a major upper swing zone between 0.66247 and 0.6635. The high for the day sits just below that resistance band.
This upper area is important — not only because it caps the current move, but because of its historical significance. Since late May, the AUDUSD has spent the majority of its time oscillating within this very range. Aside from one failed downside break in June and one failed upside break in September, price has consistently respected this zone. When the market repeatedly reacts to a level across multiple months, traders take notice. It becomes a natural battleground for both sides.
For buyers who have been “on board the trend train” over the last few weeks, this zone represents the next big hurdle. To keep momentum alive, they need to force a clean break above 0.6635 and hold above it. A successful push would open the door toward the September high near 0.67064 as the next meaningful upside target.
On the other hand, sellers may view this same area as an attractive lean point. The risk is well-defined, the level has worked repeatedly in the past, and the upside can be capped by placing stops just above 0.6635. If history repeats itself, this resistance band could once again halt the advance.
If resistance does hold, the first intraday level to watch on the downside is 0.6597. A break below that level would give sellers more confidence that a short-term top is forming and that the upside attempt has stalled.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.