Fundamental
Overview
The uncertainty about a
December cut has been weighing on bitcoin ever since Powell delivered his
infamous line saying that a December cut was not a foregone conclusion. The
lack of official US data and cautious stance from Fed members didn’t help
either.
Given the overstretched
positioning in risk assets and the higher general volatility of the
cryptocurrency market, bitcoin experienced one of the worst months since 2022.
The cryptocurrency
rebounded on Friday though as Fed’s Williams suggested that he would support a
rate cut in December. That saw the December rate cut odds jumping immediately
to 60% giving the cryptocurrency a boost.
As things stand, a rate cut in December is now more
likely and that
should support bitcoin heading into the meeting.
We have a holiday-shortened
week due to Thanksgiving on Thursday, but we will still get two important
economic data like the weekly ADP report tomorrow and the most recent US
Jobless Claims on Wednesday. Soft data should keep the hopes for a December cut
high.
Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin broke below a major trendline on Friday but eventually bounced
back following Fed’s Williams’s support for a December cut. The buyers will
likely pile in here with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower again to extend the drop into the 74,474 level
next.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward defining the bearish momentum on this
timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep
pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to
increase the bullish bets into the next major trendline.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the buyers will want to see the price breaking
above the trendline to get more conviction for new highs, while the sellers
will keep on leaning on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the weekly ADP jobs data and the US Consumer Confidence report.
We will also get the September US PPI and Retail Sales reports. On Wednesday,
we get the most recent US Jobless Claims figures and the September Durable
Goods Orders report. On Thursday, we have the US Thanksgiving holiday, so the
final part of the week will likely see a rangebound market.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.