Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida delivered a cautious outlook on the economy, warning that risks to growth and inflation remain skewed to the downside due to “extremely high” global trade uncertainty. Speaking ahead of the BoJ’s July 30–31 policy meeting, Uchida said the central bank remains open to raising interest rates but will do so only if economic and price conditions evolve as expected.
While recent inflation—driven notably by broadening food price increases—has overshot expectations, Uchida said the BoJ would assess developments without bias, particularly in light of ongoing U.S. trade policy shifts. A newly announced U.S.-Japan trade deal could reduce some of the uncertainty, but Uchida warned that if tariffs prove more damaging or persistent, Japan’s recent trend of wage growth could falter.
The BoJ raised rates earlier this year after ending its ultra-loose policy, but higher U.S. tariffs and external risks led to a downward revision of its growth forecast in May. Analysts now believe the timing of any further hikes hinges on sustained corporate wage increases and resilience in domestic demand, with many expecting the BoJ to hold rates steady for the remainder of 2025. The bank’s upcoming quarterly outlook is expected to highlight trade-related risks, though possibly with a slightly less pessimistic tone than earlier this year.
Above is via Reuters, in brief.
Earlier:
- Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida: Japan’s economy has recovered moderately
- More from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida
- More again from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida – CPI to dip then rise
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.