- 45 of 75 economists (60%) expect BOJ to raise rates by 25 bps this quarter
- 64 of 67 economists (96%) expect BOJ policy rate to be at 0.75% by end of March 2026
- 16 of 35 economists (46%) expect BOJ to hike rates in January 2026
- 11 of 35 economists (31%) expect BOJ to hike rates in December 2025
- 5 of 35 economists (14%) expect BOJ to hike rates in October 2025
- 18 of 27 economists (67%) don’t expect Takaichi’s premiership to delay a BOJ rate hike
- 17 of 26 economists (65%) expressed concerns about her policies on Japan’s fiscal health
Just note the polling date for this is between 14 to 20 October. Hence, the sample size of responses on Takaichi were much smaller. But at the balance, it seems that analysts are not expecting her premiership to have much of an impact as the majority are still anticipating the BOJ to hike rates one more time before year-end. And in their view, the rate hike will definitely come by the end of Q1 next year.
As things stand, traders are pricing in just ~11 bps of rate hikes by year-end with roughly one full 25 bps rate hike by March next year.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.