Fundamental
Overview
Crude oil extended the
gains after breaking above the key $80 resistance as the market eventually
caught up to the positive drivers. In fact, we got the OPEC+’s extension of
voluntary output cuts, and we’ve been seeing a pickup in
economic activity.
We have also some major
central banks beginning to ease their policies and China will likely continue
to do so as deflationary forces remain present. All else being equal, this
should support the demand outlook in the big picture.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil broke through the key resistance around the 80 level and after some
consolidation, extended the gains as the buyers piled in more aggressively. The
first target should be the 84.50 level where we might get a rejection and
possibly a pullback as the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk
above the level to position for a drop back into the 80 level.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline
now defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers
will likely lean on it to position for a break above the 84.50 level with a
better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 80 level.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more closely the recent price action with the rally yesterday following the
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI. That was a headscratcher as the data came out on the
softer side.
Nonetheless, the buyers
might want to wait for a pullback before increasing their positions, while the
sellers will want to lean on the 84.50 resistance and increase the bearish bets
on key downside breaks. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US Job Openings and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we
get the US ADP, the US Jobless Claims, the US ISM Services PMI and the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. Thursday is going to be a US Holiday for Independence Day.
Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Source