Fundamental
Overview
Crude oil erased all the
gains since the breakout of the two-month range as tariffs threats and Trump’s pledge
to increase production weighed on the market.
The geopolitical risk
premium has also been easing with a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and
positive headlines on potential deal in the Russian-Ukraine war coming in the
next few months.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil eventually fell all the way back to the key 72.00 level that
will now act as support. This is where we can expect the buyers to step
in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the
80.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 65.00 handle next.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have now a downward trendline
defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the
trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break
higher to position for a rally back into the highs.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the sellers will look for a break below the
support, while the buyers will look for a bounce of a break above the downward
trenlinde. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the US Consumer Confidence data. Tomorrow, we
have the FOMC Policy Decision. On Thursday, we get the US Q4 GDP report and the
latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US
PCE and the US Employment Cost Index.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Source