Deutsche Bank base case is now for a higher Fed terminal rate than previously expected

Snippet from Deutsche Bank, in brief:

  • base case for 2025 is stronger US growth and inflation
  • higher FOMC terminal rate than previously expected
  • opposite
    applies to Europe

On the US DB:

  • assumes modest US
    tax cuts
  • strong deregulation efforts
  • more supportive
    financial conditions
  • assume a 10%
    increase in the tariff rate on imports from China in H1 (ratcheting
    up a further 10pp in H2)
  • equalisation of tariff rates on motor
    vehicles with Europe
  • assume a 5% universal baseline tariff (more likely
    to be implemented late 2025/early 2026)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source