Deutsche Bank’s assessment is that “A US recession remains more likely than not.”

Deutsche Bank think a US recession is more likely than the hoped-for “soft landing”, citing the risk the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tightening interest rates too much.

• “Given that inflation peaked significantly above target, the
  Fed should err on the side of tightening too much, rather than
  too little,”
• a “soft landing” can still be achieved but its still likely that the Fed needs to “depress demand below
  potential” to bring inflation to target

DB say they expect the data to show the US economy under greater pressure early in 2024.

In contrast to Deutsche Bank, this from GS earlier:

• Goldman Sachs further
  reduced their 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from a
  previous 20% estimate.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source