The preliminary data suggests that we should see lower and more stable wage growth in the first half of 2026. Negotiated wage growth was 4.1% in 2024 and is estimated to be 3.8% in 2025 now, once excluding one-off payments. Looking to 2026, the wage tracker finds that negotiated wage growth will fall further to 2.5% in 2026 (excluding one-off payments).
For some added context, it is estimating the first half of this year to be 4.3% and 3.3% in the second half of the year. So, the overall trend looks to be continuing to point to slower and moderating wage pressures.
That will be a welcome development for the ECB, offering them some added flexibility in managing monetary policy now. That especially if they are still worried about consumer prices in general.
The full data can be found here.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.