- We will have new projections in December
- But developments point to growth remaining fragile
- Geopolitical risks are increasing
- Potential changes in US trade policy will only add to the uncertainty
- When one imposes tariffs, they have to be prepared for retaliation – which can start a vicious cycle
At the balance, the emphasis on a “fragile” economy and added downside risks to the economic outlook reaffirms another rate cut in December. For now, markets are pricing in roughly ~56% odds of a 25 bps move with the remainder tied to a 50 bps move.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com. Source