- Disinflationary forces are there because of the Euro and energy.
- Trade policy uncertainty has been on radar since summer.
- There’s reason for longer-term optimism on the economy.
- The European economy is growing and showing resilience.
- The economy should be growing, despite trade negatives.
- We can’t get ahead of ourselves on any path for economy.
- The US is an important trading partner, but not the only partner.
- We won’t pre-commit to any rate path.
- Euro Area growth forecast will see a moderate markdown.
Nothing new here as the ECB continues to take a ‘meeting by meeting approach’ focusing on the incoming data. Lane highlights the disinflationary forces from a stronger Euro and falling energy prices. The economy is likely to face a growth slowdown in the short-term but if the US tariffs get rolled back, then they might fight with inflation again given their pre-emptive easing and a potential covid-style bullwhip scenario.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.