- Inflation risk from trade tensions seems weak and could even be downward.
- Inflationary risk from a few weeks ago has gone.
- We are ready to act quickly depending on the data.
- We are in a “very choppy sea”.
- Agile pragmatism applies to the latest decision.
- Cannot say today what the ECB will decide in June.
- The ECB must be prepared for various possibilities.
The market sees a 69% probability of a 25 bps cut in June and a total of 63 bps of easing by year-end.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.