Ethereum Futures Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (August 12, 2025)
Bullish above: 4,303
Bearish below: 4,260
Current price (analysis time): 4,290
Primary Bias: Slightly bullish while above 4,260
Partial targets (bullish): 4,319 · 4,339 · 4,349 · 4,383 · 4,465
Partial targets (bearish): 4,241 · 4,213.5 · 4,160 · 4,110
ETH Futures Market context & directional bias
ETH futures sit right on top of yesterday’s VWAP and today’s Value Area Low (VAL) around 4,290—exactly where auctions often reset and decide the next push. We remain inside a 4,200–4,400 range, so expect push–pull behavior until one side wins. Bulls keep the upper hand while price holds above 4,260 (beneath yesterday’s VAL would hand control to sellers). A sustained break above 4,303 (today’s VWAP) would reassert bullish momentum toward the overhead magnets listed below.
Friday’s long idea (avg. entry ~3,949) targeted 4,400. Per our Telegram note, we trimmed before the big round number because risk/reward deteriorated—you don’t need the whole move; just the meat of it. That said, there’s still a reasonable path for bulls to probe 4,465, a known liquidity pocket. Just remember: ranges invite stop hunts; yesterday’s dip just under 4,200 was textbook liquidity tagging before a turn.
News drivers in the last 24 hours (why this matters to ETH today)
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Record ETF demand: U.S.-listed spot Ether ETFs posted ~$1B of net inflows in a single day for the first time, according to Coindesk! Total Ether ETF assets are now reported around $25.7B. This strengthens the “dip gets bought” narrative while ETH trades near key levels.
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DeFi signal: Ethena’s TVL crossed $11.9B, highlighting renewed appetite for ETH-based yield and non‑staking models, another supportive current for the network’s demand side.
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On‑chain throughput is improving: ETH transaction counts are trending higher as L1 capacity increased (higher gas limit) and fees fell, especially for stablecoin and DeFi activity. Rising usage alongside lower friction is a constructive backdrop while we’re battling at VWAP/VAL.
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Positioning risk to monitor: With ~97% of ETH addresses in profit, profit‑taking risk rises near resistance; that fits our tighter targets and “defense first” approach inside the 4,200–4,400 range.
Key levels & partial‑profit plan (TradeCompass)
Bullish plan (only valid above 4,303):
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4,319 – Just under yesterday’s POC; price often pauses/magnetizes here.
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4,339 – Today’s VAH minus one; a typical “first fade/trim” area in ranges.
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4,349 – Yesterday’s VAH minus one; second acceptance test above value.
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4,383 – Below the 4,400 round‑number liquidity; scale more here into strength.
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4,465 – Higher‑timeframe liquidity zone for swing‑minded longs.
Bearish plan (only valid below 4,260):
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4,241 – Near today’s VWAP −2σ; mean‑reversion extension target.
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4,213.5 – Around yesterday’s VWAP −3σ; deeper excursion within range.
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4,160 – Another yesterday VWAP −3σ reference; watch for responsive buying.
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4,110 – Just above Aug 8 VAH; if tagged, expect strong two‑way flow.
Stop logic right now: In this range, a stop like 4,275 (mentioned by a trader) sits inside value and risks ordinary noise stop‑outs. For longs, a wiser line in the sand is below yesterday’s VAL (4,263)—that’s where your thesis is actually invalidated. For shorts, mirror the idea relative to the bullish threshold (never park stops beyond the opposite threshold).
Education: Bitcoin Dominance & ETH’s recent outperformance
Bitcoin Dominance is simply BTC’s share of the total crypto market cap. When dominance falls, it often means capital is rotating into higher‑beta assets like ETH; when it rises, BTC is soaking up flows.
Recently, ETH has notably outpaced BTC on multiple timeframes—~102% vs ~22% over ~90 days per a detailed performance breakdown, and ~54% vs ~10% over the past month, underscoring strong relative momentum into Ethereum‑centric narratives (ETFs, lower fees, DeFi engagement). That’s a remarkable shift in leadership during what many still view as a BTC‑led cycle.
Education: Why VWAP & deviations matter (and why our targets are ‘tight’)
VWAP marks the market’s volume‑weighted “fair price” for the session. When price is above today’s VWAP, participants are paying a premium versus the day’s average; below VWAP is a discount. Standard‑deviation bands around VWAP expand in trends and contract in ranges, acting as dynamic magnets and guardrails. In a range‑day, price often oscillates between VAL–POC–VAH and VWAP ±1–2σ, so tight partials at these nodes aren’t timid—they’re smart extraction points where flow typically stalls or flips. That’s why our 4,319/4,339/4,349/4,383 levels cluster: they’re probable reaction points, not wishful targets.
Education: tradeCompass methodology & “defense before offense”
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One trade per direction. Avoid churn. If your long plan plays out, you’re done with longs until a fresh setup emerges.
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Partial‑profit discipline. Locking in at logical nodes (POC/VAH/VAL/VWAP deviations) reduces variance and buys optionality for runners.
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Stop movement (important today): As soon as the second target is hit, move your stop to at least break‑even (or better). Inside a range, mean‑reversion snaps are common; protecting gains takes priority over squeezing the last 10 points.
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Confirmation is flexible. Some traders want two closes beyond a threshold; others use a timed confirm (e.g., 15‑minute hold). Pick a rule and be consistent.
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Never park your stop beyond the opposite threshold. Crossing that boundary invalidates your premise.
How to use today’s “compass” by investingLive.com
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If price can’t hold above 4,303, fading bounces toward VWAP with tight risk can make sense until acceptance returns.
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If price slips below 4,260, treat bounces as potential sell‑rallies toward 4,241 → 4,213.5.
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If price accepts above 4,303, look for a guided walk: 4,319 → 4,339 → 4,349 → 4,383, and only then think about a runner toward 4,465 if momentum and order flow agree (our OrderFlow Intel helps time that).
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Range reality: expect sharp legs both ways; don’t chase mid‑range.
Disclaimer: This is decision‑support, not financial advice. Crypto and futures are risky; manage size and follow your stops. tradeCompass helps you frame the day with objective levels, as you control execution. Visit investingLive.com for additional views.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.