The EURUSD rose in the late Asian/early European session, and in the process tested it 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high. That level comes in at 1.0864. Recall from last week, that the price of the EURUSD did move above that level but could not sustain the momentum. Buyers turned to sellers. Today, the sellers were more aggressive and leaned against the retracement level.
The subsequent fall in the early US session just moved down to test its 100-hour moving average of 1.08327 and found early buyers against that level. Yesterday – and on Friday too – the low price stalled near that moving average. Holding today increases that level’s importance going forward. A break below that moving average level should lead to more downside momentum.
However, be aware that there are several additional moving averages including the 200-day moving average at1.0825, the 100-day moving average at1.0808, and the 200 hour moving average at 1.0806 (and moving higher) that needs to get and stay below to increase the bearish bias. So there are some landmines ahead that need to be maneuvered.
Buyers had their shot earlier today and sellers overwhelmed the buyers. Now the buyers are leaning at support. The battle lines are drawn. Who will win?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source