EURUSD Technical Analysis – The fakeout is a bad omen for the bulls


  • The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
    expected and kept everything unchanged.
  • Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
    and kept all the options on the table.
  • Inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to
    show disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures
    coming in at 0.16%.
  • The US PMIs missed
    expectations across the board last week, while the US Jobless Claims remained
  • Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was
    mostly in line with what he said previously but he stressed on the need to be
    careful going forward and that continued strength in the labour market may
    require further rate hikes.
  • The first half of the week saw US Job Openings and Consumer Confidence reports
    missing expectations by a big margin, followed by a miss in the US ADP data
  • The market doesn’t expect another hike from the Fed
    anymore, but a lot will depend on the data going forward.


  • The ECB hiked by 25 bps and
    changed a line in the statement that leant more on the dovish side.
  • President Lagarde didn’t hint to what we can expect
    next and, in line with the Fed, just reaffirmed their data dependency and kept
    all the options on the table.
  • The Eurozone PMIs missed
    expectations across the board with the Services sector plunging in contraction.
  • President Lagarde at the Jackson Hole Symposium
    didn’t signal much but she wasn’t as dovish as the market expected her to be.
  • The Eurozone CPI beat
    expectations on the headline reading due to higher energy prices, but the Core
    CPI came out in line with forecasts.
  • The market doesn’t expect the ECB to hike at the
    upcoming meeting.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD yesterday
broke out of the downward trendline but
found strong sellers around the red 21 moving average. The
price is now falling back below the trendline in what could end up being a
fakeout. This is generally a bearish signal so the buyers will need to break
out again to invalidate the bearish setup.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we’ve been diverging with the
MACD for a
long time and this is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got a breakout of the trendline which
should point to a bigger pullback into the 1.1033 level, so what happens after
today’s fakeout will be key. Right now, the price is testing the red 21 moving
average and we should find buyers stepping in here, but if the price continues
lower, then the sellers will be in control and start targeting a break below
the major bottom trendline.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a support zone
at the last higher low level where we can also find the 50% Fibonacci
level for confluence. If
the price breaks through it, it will make a new lower low and switch the market
structure from bullish to bearish. So, the buyers should step in here with a
defined risk below the level to target a new higher high, while the sellers
will want to see a break lower to pile in and extend the selloff.

Upcoming Events

This week is all about the US labour market data and the
recent releases haven’t been encouraging on a forward-looking basis. Today, the
main event will be the US Jobless Claims report accompanied by the US PCE data.
Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Manufacturing PMI

This article was written by FL Contributors at Source