The EURUSD has been choppy today, moving up and down within a relatively contained range. In that process, the pair once again pushed above the top of a key swing area at 1.16676. It did the same thing yesterday—breaking above the level—but in both cases, the upside momentum quickly faded. Each break higher stalled, inviting sellers to step in and forcing the price to rotate back lower.
That latest rotation has taken the pair back into the broader swing zone between 1.16449 and 1.16676. Importantly, the low of that area aligns almost perfectly with the 100-day moving average, which currently sits near 1.1645. The overlap of horizontal support and a major moving average increases the technical weight of this zone for both buyers and sellers.
For buyers, the roadmap is straightforward:
If the price can hold above 1.1645, the bullish case remains intact. A firm break back above 1.1667 would reopen the door toward the next upside target—the 50% retracement of the decline from the mid-September high—located near 1.16938.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 100-day moving average, the market is likely to react with disappointment. That failure would weaken the bullish bias and could trigger additional selling as traders reassess the upside attempts that have repeatedly stalled. The 100 hour MA at 1.16307 and the 200 hour MA at 1.1599 (call it 1.1600) would be downside targets.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.