- The story of US recession is not materializing
- Strong jobs report confirmed a reacceleration of the US economy
- Higher for longer for the Fed
- Yes we are getting some disinflation which is good, but core PCE at 3.8% is good but still nearly double the 2% target
- My hope is we contain inflation, get it down to 2% and then have a period of growth
- Banks have weathered the banking storm so far.
- Larger banks have not had problems.
- Banks are managing through risk
- Maybe one more rate hike. Being data dependent is appropriate.
- The risk is that inflation goes back up to over 4%.
- If it does the Fed may have to go to 6% to 6 1/2%. That is not priced in
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source