- Should proceed slowly as policy approaches neutral rate
- The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive
- Will decide on votes on a meeting by meeting basis considering potential lack of data due to shutdown
- Available information suggests not much about the economy has changed in recent months
- But still, December is a “live meeting”
There’s still some time before the next Fed meeting on 10 December. And it remains to be seen how much will the government shutdown impact the economy or clarity about it with policymakers having to still rely on private surveys for now. Traders are pricing in some ~68% odds of a 25 bps rate cut but I’d wager it to be closer to a coin flip for the time being.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.