Fed’s Cook: If inflation progress slows w/ jobs still solid, could see pause

Fed’s Cook is speaking on the economy and monetary policy and says:

  • If labor market and inflation evolve as expected, would be appropriate to continue lowering policy rate towards neutral.
  • If inflation progress slows with job market still solid, could see a scenario for pausing.
  • Totality of data suggests disinflation still underway with labor market gradually cooling.
  • Cuts so far were a strong step toward removing policy restriction.
  • Magnitude and timing of rate cuts will depend on coming data, outlook, balance of risks; policy not preset.
  • Risks right now are roughly in balance.
  • Economy is in a good position, though core inflation still somewhat elevated.
  • Elevated core inflation suggests Fed still has further to go.
  • Housing services account for most of the excess of core inflation.
  • Economic growth robust, expect expansion will continue.
  • Job risks weighted to the downside, but have diminished in recent months.
  • Slowing wage growth increases confidence in continued disinflation.
  • Job market overall remains solid; recent weak growth a result of temporary strike, storm effects.
  • Labor market largely normalized, no longer a source of inflation.
  • Continued growth with slowing inflation could mean underlying potential is greater than thought.
  • Faster productivity growth appears to have supported both potential and actual growth.

Keeps the options open but is confident that inflation will continue to move lower.

A view from WSJ Timiraos:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source