- It’s very clear that inflation has come way down in 12-18 months
- This is about as fast as inflation has ever fallen
- Inflation path isn’t done but it makes me feel a lot better to see components decline, including housing
- The labor market has been cooling to a position of better balance
- So far this doesn’t look like a recession in the labor market but there are warning lights
- We want to be stable at full employment
- If you saw a sharp of an uptick in unemployment, you would be justified to be agitated about the unemployment level. Thus far it doesn’t look like that.
- Unemployment needs to steady
- I don’t like to tie our hands on future meetings, we have plenty of data coming
- The more months of data that look like recent data, the closer you get to 2%
The market is fully priced for a September cut and is priced for 64 bps in easing this year.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source