- ADP March US employment +155K vs +115K expected
- US February factory orders +0.6% vs +0.5% expected
- US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% — report
- Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight
- Elon Musk is likely to leave DOGE soon – report
- Mexican Pres.: It will not impose tit-for-tat tariffs
- EIA weekly crude oil inventories +6165K vs -2116K expected
- ECB’s Holzmann: Rates are at neutral level, no reason to become accommodative
- Tesla first quarter deliveries 337K vs 380K consensus
Markets:
- Gold up $15 to $3125
- WTI crude oil up 56-cents to $71.79
- US 10-year yields up 4.1 bps to 4.20%
- S&P 500 up 0.6%
- NZD leads, JPY lags
Eyes were glued to the wires and elsewhere today in search for leaks around Trump’s tariffs, which are coming up at the top of the hour. The closest we came was from an unlikely source — the UK’s Sky News — that said there would be bands of 10%, 15% and 20% that were both on countries and industries.
Other reports suggest that China’s exemption from de minimis tariffs could be dropped, but that’s been expected for awhile. Another indication is that auto and other tariffs will go into effect at midnight in a sign that any negotiations would happen with the tariffs already in place. Otherwise, there hasn’t been much in the way of news on the tariff front so we will have to wait and see.
Like Monday and Tuesday, the worst sentiment of the day was in the US pre-market and dip buyers stepped in there. That turned a 50-point drop in S&P 500 futures into a 50-point gain. With that, the pound and euro climbed in a potential sign that European tariffs could have leaked out somewhere and led to bids. Otherwise it could just be optimism.
In terms of economic data, the numbers on employment and factory orders were good in another indication that poor sentiment hasn’t (yet?) seemed into the real economy.
Trump is scheduled to speak at 4 pm ET.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.