Headlines:
- Gold shines as we draw closer to Trump tariffs deadline
- The DAX index falls as auto stocks get slammed on Trump’s 25% tariffs
- Trump threatens “large scale” tariffs on EU, Canada if they cause economic harm to the US
- German economy minister: We must be clear that we will not back down to US tariffs
- UK’s Chancellor Reeves: The UK is in intensive tariff talks
- ECB’s Wunsch: A rate cut pause in April should be on the table
- ECB’s Kazāks: We can probably keep cutting if baseline holds
- ECB’s Villeroy: Increase in long term yields tightens financial conditions
- PBOC deputy governor says monetary policy is supportive, relatively loose
- Eurozone February M3 money supply +4.0% vs +3.8% y/y expected
- Dollar expected to be bid on month-end – Deutsche
- Dollar the flavour this month-end, quarter-end – Barclays
Markets:
- GBP leads, JPY lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
- US 10-year yields up 5.3 bps to 4.390%
- Gold up 1.0% to $3,050.54
- WTI crude down 0.3% to $69.41
- Bitcoin down 0.3% to $86,968
The threat of Trump’s tariffs continues to reverberate across markets today. The dollar was bid early in Asia before fading that as we got to the handover in Europe and it sort of stuck during the session. That comes as the overall risk mood remains cautious after the selloff in equities yesterday.
EUR/USD did briefly pare gains to 1.0750 before pulling back up to 1.0785 currently, as the dollar trades more mixed on the session. USD/JPY is up 0.2% to 150.90 levels amid higher bond yields while GBP/USD is seen up 0.4% to 1.2935 on the day.
The dollar is also trading mixed against the commodity currencies, up 0.1% against the loonie with USD/CAD at 1.4275. Canada is one of those hit by auto tariffs, as US auto imports from Canada are the fourth highest – sitting only behind Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD is seen up 0.3% to 0.6315 despite the risk divergence. That said, it’s still early in the day.
In other markets, equities are keeping more cautious in general. But in Europe, the selling continues with the DAX in particular hit the hardest as Germany is also one that is more impacted by auto tariffs. As for US futures, they were largely flattish during the session but are now tilting lower ahead of US trading.
In the commodities space, gold continues to shine brightly as it edges higher close to its record high of $3,057. Increased economic uncertainty is just among the list of reasons in keeping the precious metal bid during these testing times, as the gold bugs continue to keep buzzing for the time being.
Coming up later, we do have some US data to work through in the form of the weekly jobless claims and Q4 final GDP. But as has been the case all week, tariff headlines will continue to be the main focus ahead of the 2 April deadline next week.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.