The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed with gains in the GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD (the biggest mover with the USD up 0.22%) and the NZD. The EUR and the CHF is lower modestly.
Yesterday Fed Chair Powell made comments suggesting that the U.S. central bank might need to take more action to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Speaking at an IMF event in Washington D.C., Powell mentioned that while there has been some relief in price pressures recently, the FOMC is still committed to pursuing a “sufficiently restrictive” policy stance. He indicated uncertainty about achieving that stance and hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes. This stance contrasted with market expectations that the Fed might have completed its tightening measures, as it had left the Fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% in its most recent meeting. Powell’s comments raised questions about the future direction of Fed policy and its impact on financial markets. US yields moved sharply higher, and the border stock indices snapped their gain streaks (NASDAQ was up 9 straight days, and the S&P was up 8 straight days).
Tomorrow in the US is Veterans Day where we honor all military personnel who served in the Armed Forces. Today is a day of observance at some banks and government offices. I personally honor current military personnel as well in my heart. My thanks and gratitude go to all veterans today (in the US and beyond our borders) who fight for freedom, for the oppressed, the attacked, and the marginalized. Although the US stock and bond markets are open, market activity may be a bit more limited especially later in the day.
On the economic calendar today:
- FOMC Member Logan Speaks (USD)
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD). Estimate 63.7 vs 63.8 last month
- Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD). Last month 4.2%
- German Buba President Nagel Speaks (EUR)
- German Buba President Nagel speaks
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.99 or 1.31% at $76.74. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $75.98. For the trading week the price is down -4.78%.
- Spot gold is trading down $12.17 -0.62% at $1946.20. At this time yesterday, he price was trading marginally lower at $1945.52. For the week the price is down -2.23%
- Spot silver is trading down $0.11 or -0.53% at $22.51. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at the same level of $22.51. For the week the price is down -2.96%
- Bitcoin is trading sharply higher at $37,103. Yesterday the price extended up to $37,978 (the highest level since May). At time yesterday, the price was trading at $36,890. For the week the price is 6.1%
In the US stock market, the major indices are trading mixed. The NASDAQ snapped its nine-day winning streak yesterday while the S&P’s 8 day streak was ended. The Dow Industrial Average fell for the 2nd consecutive day yesterday.
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 91 points. Yesterday the index fell -220.30 points or -0.65%. At the close yesterday, the Dow is down -0.5% for the week.
- S&P index futures are implying a gain of 5.7 points. Yesterday the index fell -35.43 points or -0.81%. For the week, the price is down -0.25%
- NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 13.5 points. Yesterday the index fell -128.97 points or -0.94%. For the week, the index is up 0.32%
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading marginally higher
- German DAX, -0.61%. For the trading week the index is up 0.47%
- France’s CAC, -0.91%. For the week the index is unchanged
- UK’s FTSE 100, -1.26%. For the week the index is down -0.76%
- Spain’s Ibex, -0.12%. For the week the index is up 1.05%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.42% (10 minute delay)
In the Asia Pacific market, major indices closed mostly lower:
- Japan’s Nikkei index, -0.24%. For the trading week the index rose 1.93%
- China’s Shanghai Composite Index, -0.47%. For the trading week, the index rose 0.27%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, -1.76%. For the week, the index fell -2.61%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX index, -0.55%. For the week the index is closing unchanged
In the US debt market, yields are lower retracing some of the gains in yields from yesterday. Yesterday the 30-year bond auction was a mess with a large tail and low international and domestic demand. There is some speculation that an internet hack of the US arm of a Chinese bank limited the number of bids. Nevertheless the market is very concerned about the supply and demand for US debt and that sent yields sharply to the upside
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 5.007% -1.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.952%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.618% -2.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.551%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.600% -3.0 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.545%
- US 30Y BOND: 4.725% -4.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the others at 4.685%
- 2 – 10-year spread is at -41.2 basis points. This time yesterday, the spread was at -41.2 basis points
- 2 – 30 year spread is at -26.9 basis points. This time yesterday, the spread was at -26.9 basis points
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are higher:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source