GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Is this a breakout or a fakeout?



  • The BoE kept interest rates unchanged as expected today.
  • The central bank is leaning towards
    keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, although it keeps a door open for
    further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent.
  • BoE Governor
    repeated that they will keep rates high for long enough to get
    inflation back to target.
  • The latest employment report showed a slowdown in wage growth
    and some job losses in September which could point to a softening labour
  • The recent UK CPI slightly beat expectations but given the
    softening in the labour market it’s unlikely to change the BoE’s stance.
  • The UK PMIs showed further contraction in the services
    sector, which accounts for 80% of UK’s economic activity.
  • The market doesn’t expect the BoE to
    hike anymore.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the GBPUSD pair
is currently breaking out of the trendline. The
buyers are likely to pile in with a defined risk below the most recent low and
target the 1.23 resistance. The
sellers, on the other hand, are likely to wait around the 1.23 handle to step
in with a defined risk above it and position for a drop into the 1.1840 level.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
breakout of the trendline following the BoE rate decision and especially the
weaker US economic data. The price has been printing higher highs and higher
lows, so the current market structure on this timeframe is bullish. The sellers
might still try to fade the move buying the USD as a safe haven, but the odds
are more in favour of the buyers at the moment.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that if we
were to get a pullback, the buyers should lean on the minor upward trendline
where they will also find the red 21 moving average and
the 50% Fibonacci
level for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower and
falling back below the major downward trendline to invalidate the bullish setup
and position for a drop into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report
and the ISM Services PMI.

This article was written by FL Contributors at Source