Market Summary at a Glance
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Historic Milestones: Both gold and silver are on track for record-breaking closes, with gold up over 2% and silver gaining more than 2.5%.
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Monetary Tailwinds: Expectations for two additional U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025 are lowering real yields and boosting demand for non-yielding assets.
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Geopolitical Safety: Rising tensions in Venezuela and broader global uncertainty are driving consistent “safe-haven” capital flows into bullion.
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Supply Scarcity: Silver is benefiting from a “double-whammy” of record industrial demand (EVs/Solar) and constrained mine production.
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Key Levels to Watch: Gold eyes the $4,515 Fibonacci extension, while silver remains bullish as long as it stays above its moving average support.
Gold Analysis: Testing the Channel Top
Gold is currently trading at $4,438.50, marking its largest single-day gain since November. The metal is riding its strongest annual performance since 1979, currently up approximately 68% for the year.
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The Bull Case: Ongoing central bank accumulation and steady inflows into gold-backed ETFs provide a structural floor for prices.
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Technical Resistance: Sellers are currently defending a topside channel trendline near $4,439. A clean break above this level targets the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $4,515.17.
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Support & Risk: Buyers must hold the $4,380.79 level (the previous October high) to maintain momentum. A dip below the recent high of $4,375.17 would signal a “failed breakout” and potential disappointment for bulls.
Silver Analysis: Industrial Demand Meets Speculative Fire
Silver has outperformed gold today on a percentage basis, trading at $68.83. While gold often leads the rally, silver’s historical tendency to “catch up” with higher volatility is currently on full display.
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Fundamental Drivers: Beyond its role as a hedge, silver is seeing “unrelenting” demand from the solar, EV, and electronics sectors. Because silver is often a by-product of other mining operations, the supply cannot easily scale to meet this surge.
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Technical Outlook: The price has moved above an hourly topside trendline. While currently stalling near the $69.00 psychological barrier, the broader trend remains upward.
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Trailing Support: The 100-hour Moving Average (MA) at $66.12 is the critical line in the sand. This moving average has successfully supported dips throughout December. Only a break below this MA, followed by a move under the 200-hour MA at $64.38, would shift the short-term bias to the downside.
The Hard-Asset Rally
The strength isn’t limited to just one metal; gains in platinum confirm that we are seeing a broad-based move into hard assets. As investors hedge against inflation and macro uncertainty, the “trend is your friend” for the precious metals complex as we head into the new year.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.