FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Gold continues to
consolidate between major technical levels as traders await the US NFP and CPI
reports later in the week. The fundamentals are still against rising prices due
to improving US data and easing geopolitical tensions.
This Wednesday, we will get
the US NFP report and that’s going to be very important for gold. In fact, the
market is pricing 54 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high
risk of a hawkish repricing in case the data comes out strong. In such a
scenario, we will likely see gold selling off.
On the other hand, a weak
report should strengthen the case for more Fed easing and might even see
traders bringing forward rate cut bets as some Fed members expressed scepticism
about labour market stabilisation.
GOLD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to consolidate above the trendline as traders await new
catalysts for the next major move. If we get another flush into the trendline,
we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to position
for a rally into a new record high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look
for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3887 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a resistance zone around the 5100 level. We can expect the
sellers to step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to
position for a drop into the trendline targeting a breakout. The buyers, on the
other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new
all-time highs.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection around
the resistance, while the buyers will look for a break. The red lines define the
average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow we get the US December Retail Sales and the US Employment Cost Index
data. On Wednesday, we have the US NFP report. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.