Goldman lifted its end-2026 gold target to $5,400/oz, from $4,900, arguing private allocations are building and central banks will keep adding to reserves.
Summary:
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Goldman raises Dec 2026 gold forecast to $5,400/oz
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Bank cites stronger private investor diversification
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Central-bank buying seen averaging 60 tonnes in 2026
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EM reserve diversification viewed as structural
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Call implies stronger medium-term demand underpinning
Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast by $500 to $5,400/oz, arguing that the next leg of the move is being reinforced by a combination of stronger private-sector allocation and ongoing, structurally driven central-bank demand.
In its latest update, Goldman said private sector diversification into gold to increase, signalling that investor positioning may be shifting from tentative interest to more sustained allocation. The bank’s message is that gold is increasingly being treated less as a tactical trade and more as a strategic portfolio holding, particularly in an environment where investors are reassessing correlation risks, geopolitical uncertainty and the durability of the global disinflation story.
Alongside this, Goldman expects official-sector demand to remain a powerful anchor. It forecasts central-bank purchases averaging 60 tonnes in 2026, driven largely by emerging market central banks continuing what it describes as structural diversification of reserves into gold. That framing matters: it suggests demand is not purely price-sensitive or cyclical, but tied to longer-run reserve management preferences and a desire to reduce reliance on traditional reserve currencies.
The forecast upgrade also implies Goldman sees a tighter balance between mine supply, recycling flows and incremental demand than previously assumed, with official buying and improving investor participation helping absorb supply even if speculative froth comes and goes. Put simply, Goldman is leaning into a “stickier demand” narrative: central banks continue to buy, and private investors are now joining more meaningfully, creating a more supportive backdrop for prices.
For markets, the revised target reinforces the idea that gold’s upside is being driven by more than just day-to-day moves in yields or the dollar. While near-term swings will still be shaped by rates, inflation surprises and risk sentiment, Goldman’s call highlights a longer-horizon bid that could keep dips shallower than in prior cycles — so long as central-bank accumulation and private diversification remain intact.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.