Goldman Sachs on US CPI & jobs – labor market indicators more reliable on recession risk

Forex Short News

I found a couple of items from Goldman Sachs, analysts at the firm having a peek at the inner working of both sides of the Federal Reserve mandate.

On the CPI report that’ll be released this week:

  • GS expect both headline and core CPI to have increased by 0.3% m/m in September
  • core +3.1% y/y
  • see car price inflation and airfare price inflation decreasing
  • labor market and housing market prices cooling
  • tariffs could push up prices in sectors impacted

Goldman Sachs addressed the US labor marekt also:

  • we should take the recent labor market weakness beyond the slowdown
    in labor supply seriously
  • labor market indicators are more reliable predictors of recession
    risk and future activity than activity indicators

Yes, despite the US government shut down, the US CPI data will get published:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.