Is NVDA a Buy or Sell Today? Well, Probably Both
NVIDIA closed at $176.24 yesterday and is trading near $176 pre‑market. That small dip, about -0.14%, arrives on a session packed with NVDA options expiry. When options expire, dealers and hedgers often steer price toward balance, so it helps to anchor your plan to what the options market has been “pricing in” versus what the stock actually does.
Over the last 20 trading days, NVDA’s actual move was smaller than the implied move roughly three times out of four. Around earnings in late August, implied volatility was sky‑high while the stock barely traveled, which favored option sellers over premium buyers. That pattern is your compass for how to trade NVIDIA today. Expect compression more often than expansion, and fade the edges instead of chasing every push.
There is one nuance to keep in mind. In this same 20‑day sample, days when the actual move exceeded the implied were usually followed by a calmer session. The notable exception was the recent pair of outsized days on Sep 17 and Sep 18. Exceptions happen, but the broad tendency still points to range behavior on the next day rather than a repeat of extreme follow‑through.
If you prefer video, this short technical breakdown is still timely for context and levels: [Is Nvidia a Buy? One Simple Chart Tells the Story](https://investinglive.com/stocks/is-nvidia-a-buy-one-simple-chart-tells-the-story-20250917/)
The quick math traders care about
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NVDA expected range today based on the recent 10‑day average implied move of about ±2.0%:
From ~$172.6 to ~$179.5 off the current pre‑market price.
Including the full 20‑day window lifts the average to about ±2.5%, but that is skewed by the earnings week. -
The value area from yesterday was tight at roughly 0.94% wide, which aligns with a range day rather than a trending day unless a fresh catalyst shows up.
NVIDIA key levels for today
Think in zones, not single prints. These are the levels where the tape often changes character.
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Developing VWAP 175.91
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Point of Control 176.00
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Yesterday’s VWAP 175.65
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Yesterday’s VAL 175.40
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Yesterday’s VAH 177.06
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Sep 15 POC 177.75
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Upper reference 178.25
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Deeper support candidate 174.40
How to read them:
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176 to 175.40 is your intraday balance spine. If price chops here, treat it as the mean.
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177.06 to 177.75 is a resistance band that has turned price back more than once. If NVDA rallies into this band, watch your tape and delta for fatigue.
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178.25 is the first spot where failed breakouts are common on compressed days.
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174.40 is the deeper level that often attracts dip‑buyers if the morning gets heavy.
The playbook, tailored to who you are
Day traders
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Think fade first. When you see price tag VAH 177.06 to 177.75, look for a short against exhaustion, then target a drift back toward VWAP 175.91.
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If the morning pushes lower into 175.40 to 175.65, hunt for a responsive bounce. Use VWAP for first scale‑outs.
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Only switch to trend tactics if you get a clean break and hold outside the ±2.0% NVDA expected range with volume and delta confirming. Without that, assume moves revert.
Swing traders
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Use the NVDA expected move vs actual move tendency to size smaller on breakouts and larger on reversions.
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Respect the 177.75 to 178.25 band for trims on longs opened earlier this week. If you must chase, insist on acceptance above 178.25 after a retest.
Long‑term holders
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If price lifts toward 177.75 to 178.25, that is a rational area to lighten a slice if your plan called for it, because the last 20 sessions favored reversals near the edges.
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If we get a soft open and a slide toward 175.40 to 174.40, history suggests patience usually earns a better local exit than panic selling. That is not a promise, only what the recent tape has delivered more often than not.
What today’s headlines imply without the noise
This morning’s news flow clusters around a few themes that matter to NVDA holders.
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Strategic capital moves
Reports highlight NVIDIA committing a multi‑billion dollar stake in Intel and circling sizable investments or acquisitions in AI infrastructure. The through‑line is clear. NVIDIA continues to push its ecosystem moat, from silicon to networking to software. That is structurally bullish for leadership, yet it also raises the bar for execution and return on invested capital. -
AI and networking expansion
Items point to a large Enfabrica transaction tied to networking talent and performance, plus interest in autonomy plays such as Wayve in the UK. It is the same story in a new chapter. NVIDIA is building the plumbing that lets AI workloads scale. Investors should applaud the ambition, while recognizing it is not free. -
Policy and geopolitics
Several pieces frame NVIDIA inside a US‑China technology tug of war. Semis live at the intersection of growth and policy. For NVDA, that translates into a medium‑term valuation lid when rules change or export controls tighten. The company can execute brilliantly and still run into a headline that compresses multiples. -
Positioning and perception
One note flagged that being underweight NVDA cost performance for a well‑known equity fund, while another argued NVIDIA has already solved many of a competitor’s problems. That split captures the mood. Bulls see unstoppable scale. Skeptics warn about concentration, competition, and the cost of constant expansion.
Put together, the news tenor is innovation‑bullish, policy‑mixed. It supports dips being bought, but it also supports the idea that breakouts need confirmation, especially on an expiry day when flows can mute follow‑through.
A simple routine for the session
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Mark your map. 175.40 to 176.00 is the balance core, 177.06 to 177.75 the first ceiling, 178.25 the gatekeeper, 174.40 the deeper support.
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Check the NVDA options expiry calendar effects. Expect sticky pinning near round numbers and VWAP as hedging flows flatten the tape.
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Compare intraday realized move to the NVDA expected range. If the stock is up 1.2% mid‑day and IV was pricing 2.0%, you still have room, but the past month says the last 0.8% is not easy.
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Trade the reaction, not the prediction. If price probes 178.25 and immediately stalls with weak breadth, the fade is usually the higher probability. If it breaks, retests, and holds, only then flip your bias.
Education corner for newer readers
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Implied move is the options market’s best guess for how far a stock might travel in a day. It is not a promise. It is the market’s consensus.
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Actual move is what happened. When a stock repeatedly moves less than implied, option buyers tend to overpay and price often reverts toward balance.
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VWAP and the value area help you see where the bulk of trading agreed on price. When the day’s action stays near VWAP and inside yesterday’s value area, you are usually in a range. That is when fading edges makes sense.
Final orientation for NVDA stock buyers or sellers today
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Baseline expectation is range behavior with reversions toward 175.91 unless a fresh catalyst pushes NVDA outside the ±2.0% expected band and holds it there.
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If you are trading intraday, let the 177.06 to 177.75 band and 178.25 tell you whether to fade or follow.
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If you are investing, think in slices. Strength into the upper band can be a rational trim. Weakness into 174.40 to 175.40 is often a better place to evaluate entries than the middle of the range.
Stay disciplined. And always invest ot trade Nvidia stock at your own risk only. Visit investingLive.com, formerly ForexLive.com, for unique perspectives.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.