- Nvidia earning after the close. What are traders/analysts expecting?
- FOMC Minutes: Many indicated it’s likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged
- It’s not a good sign when they talk about an ‘everything rally’
- US sells 20-year bonds at 4.706% vs 4.704% WI
- Ukraine peace plan would surrender Donbas and halve its armed forces
- BLS cancels October jobs report
- Gold reverses early gains and slumps into negative territory
- If art prices are any indication…
- EIA weekly crude oil inventories -3426K vs -603K expected
- The Google chamgechanger: Why GOOG stock is surging and everyone else is slumping
- Google proved that you don’t need Nvidia and so much more
- US August trade balance -59.6B vs -61.0B expected
- Oil prices fall on talk of ending the Ukraine war
- The USD is mixed to kickstart the day w/ the EURUSD little changed, the USDJPY higher
- NVDA earnings tonight, what we can learn from the options market
- investingLive European FX news wrap: UK CPI in line, JPY extends losses
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 November -5.2% vs +0.6% prior
The U.S. trade deficit for August (yes—released in mid-November) printed at –$59.6 billion, slightly better than the –$61.0 billion expected, but the release had virtually no market impact.
What did move markets was the announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that the October jobs report will not be released, and that the November report is delayed until December 16—after the FOMC meeting. That decision sent the U.S. dollar higher as traders reasoned that policymakers are less likely to cut rates if they are heading into the meeting without fresh labor-market data.
The FOMC meeting minutes were also less dovish. The FOMC minutes showed a committee leaning cautious but divided. Many participants indicated it would likely be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, though most still expect further gradual cuts over time to move toward a neutral stance. Several policymakers said a December rate cut could be appropriate if the economy evolves as expected, but others preferred holding steady, underscoring a wide range of views. The minutes noted rising downside risks to employment, slowing job gains, and a “somewhat elevated” inflation backdrop with ongoing upside risks—especially from tariffs, which are expected to push core goods inflation higher in 2025–26. Nearly all participants agreed to end QT on December 1 as reserves approach ample levels. The discussion also highlighted a divergence in consumer spending between higher-income households and more financially strained lower-income groups, and some officials flagged stretched asset valuations with the risk of a disorderly equity decline. Staff projections show GDP remaining above potential through 2028, though uncertainty is elevated. The meeting itself featured a 25 bp cut to 3.75–4.00%, with dissents on both sides—Miran arguing for 50 bps and Schmid preferring no cut at all.
The EURUSD moved to new session lows and tested the low of a swing area between 1.1518 and 1.15295. The EURUSD fell -0.46% today and in the process moved away from its 200 hour moving average at 1.15872 and back below the 38.2% of the range since mid-October at 1.1567 (see post here). The price is testing a swing area down to 1.15185. The low from November comes in at 1.14679.
The GBPUSD – which was under pressure from UK CPI data released in the European session – fell below a key swing area between 1.3083 at 1.30956. The pair ha moved to a low of 1.3044 and will be targeting the low prices from November near 1.3009 and the natural support at 1.3000 (see technical post here)
The USDJPY extended above the swing area target at 156.733 reaching a high of 157.04. A swing area starting at 157.66 and extending up to 158.86 are the next target in the new trading day (see post here)
The USDCHF earlier in the day broke above a key cluster of technical levels including the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.79947, the 50% midpoint of the move down from the October, and the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.8014. The sellers turned the buyers and the price has since extended all the way up to a high of 0.8067.The price is up 0.81%, and is testing the low of a key swing area between 0.8066 0.8076 ( see video here).
Looking at the US stock market ahead of Nvidia earnings after the close (earnings to be released at 4:20 PM ET).
- Dow industrial average rose 47 103 points or 0.10% at 46138.77
- S&P index rose 24.84 points or 0.3% at 6642.16
- NASDAQ index rose 131.38 points or 0.59% at 22564.23.
In the US debt market, yields are modestly higher after erasing earlier declines in yields:
- 2-year yield 3.587%, +0.6 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.701%, +0.7 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.127%, +0.6 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.749%, +0.9 basis points
Crude oil fell sharply after reports of the US brokering a new peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The price of crude oil is down $-1.38 or -2.27% at $59.29.
Gold rose $8 or 0.20% at $4074.
Bitcoin continued its move lower as it fell $-3400 or -3.72% and $89,453
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.