The US dollar’s post-CPI slide eased only slightly, with USD/JPY bouncing above 148.10, while most other majors were quiet. Australian wages beat forecasts at 3.4% y/y, a result above the RBA’s projection that could temper expectations for deeper rate cuts.
- China hits Canadian canola with 75.8% tariffs, Australia may gain but cant fill supply gap
- Nomura now sees Fed starting rate cuts in September, with more in December and March
- PBOC official: Will increase credit issuance to service consumption sector
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- US, China to hold trade talks within 3 months; tariffs stay until fentanyl progress seen
- Stronger Q2 housing finance Australia: Investor & owner-occupier lending turn positive
- E3 warns it may trigger Iran sanctions snapback if no nuclear talks progress by end-August
- Australian data – Q2 2025 Wage Price Index 0.8% q/q (expected 0.8%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1350 (vs. estimate at 7.1759)
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- Japan’s wholesale inflation has slowed down for the fourth month in a row
- Japan’s two benchmark stock indexes, Niklkei and Topix, both hit a new record high today
- Japan data – July PPI +0.2% m/m (expected +0.2%) & +2.6% y/y (expected +2.5%)
- 3 things could end stock rally, Morgan Stanley: cooling jobs, narrow earning, stagflation
- Japan Reuters Tankan – Manufacturing index +9 in August vs. +7 in July
- New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales July 2025 +0.2% m/m (vs. prior +0.5%)
- Rabobank sees sterling gains fading, forecasts EUR/GBP at 0.87 near term, 0.88 in 6 months
- UBS: 100bps of Fed rate cuts, start in September despite price pressures lasting into 2026
- Goldman Sachs says US CPI backs view for Fed “insurance” September rate cut
- Hong Kong’s central bank FX market intervention yet again
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 12 Aug: CPI rise does not scare the market.
- Fed’s Barkin spoke to Wall Street Journal – says inflation won’t be as high as you think
- Oil: private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expected
- NASDAQ and S&P at highs and at record levels
- Bessent says the Federal Reserve should think about a 0.5% interest rate cut in September
The US dollar recovered only marginally after its post-CPI sell-off, with USD/JPY the main driver, climbing back above 148.10 at one point. The local move appeared tied to further weakness in Japan’s PPI, which fell year-on-year for a fourth straight month.
Elsewhere, major FX was notably quiet. News and data were light, but there were a few standouts. After the US close, Treasury Secretary Bessent told Fox Business he expects months — if not a year — of progress on reducing fentanyl flows from China before lowering tariffs. He also urged the Federal Reserve to consider a 50bp rate cut.
In Australia, Q2 wage growth slightly beat forecasts, with wages up 3.4% y/y versus 3.3% expected and matching Q1’s pace. The result, above the RBA’s projection, could fuel concerns over lingering inflation pressures and temper expectations for deeper rate cuts, even as quarterly wage growth eased to 0.8% from 0.9%.
Equities largely tracked Wall Street’s gains, though Australia underperformed.
- Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.4%
- Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +1.9%
- Japan (Nikkei 225) +1.5%
- Shanghai Composite +0.6%
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.