- How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
- Italy October preliminary CPI (HICP) +1.3% vs +1.7% y/y expected
- Eurozone October preliminary CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y expected
- ECB’s Simkus: In the medium-term, the projected indicators are aligned with the 2% target
- ECB survey: Long-term inflation expectations unchanged at 2%
- Nvidia CEO Huang: Hope the Blackwell can be sold in China
- ECB’s Kazaks: Risks to growth and inflation are more balanced
- ECB’s Muller: Current level of interest rates is appropriate
- France October preliminary CPI (HICP) +0.9% vs +1.0% y/y expected
- ECB’s Rehn: No major changes to outlook since September meeting
- Switzerland September retail sales Y/Y +1.5% vs +0.2% expected
- Germany September retail sales +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- UK October Nationwide house prices Y/Y +2.4% vs +2.3% expected
- ECB’s Kocher: Some of the data since September is slightly better
- Japan’s labour union group UA Zensen decides to seek 6% wage hike in 2026 wage talks
- What are the main events for today?
- Canada’s PM Carney: Aiming to double our non-US exports over the course of next decade
- Japan September housing starts Y/Y -7.3% vs -7.9% expected
It’s been a pretty slow session with no major news releases. We got lots of Eurozone data but since the bar to change the ECB’s stance is high, the reaction in the euro has been muted.
We’ve also got lots of ECB speakers as they came out of the blackout period, but they continue to repeat the same stuff over and over again. The core message is that they are fine with the current policy setting and that they don’t expect much change in the medium-term. They keep citing uncertainty and risks on both sides of their forecasts, but the bar to cut or hike is high in absence of new shocks.
The most important economic report today was the Eurozone Flash CPI. The headline CPI ticked lower but matched forecasts, while the core measure beat estimates but matched the prior figure. The market understandably yawned on the data.
In the American session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Canadian GDP (which is very unlikely to change anything for the BoC at this point) and a few hawkish Fed speakers.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.