- US July NFIB small business optimism index 100.3 vs 98.6 expected
- Is this the month where tariffs will show up on consumer prices?
- Why Is ASST Stock Rising?
- Germany August ZEW survey current conditions -68.6 vs -65.0 expected
- What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
- Is there a downside risk to the US CPI report later?
- US inflation seen picking up in July with bigger accelerations in the months ahead – UBS
- RBA governor Bullock: The board is always data dependent
- UK June ILO unemployment rate 4.7% vs 4.7% expected
- RBA governor Bullock: We are focused on inflation and employment
- RBA governor Bullock: There was no discussion of a larger rate cut
- China has reportedly urged local firms to avoid using Nvidia’s H20 chips in new guidance
- RBA cuts cash rate by 25 bps to 3.60% in August monetary policy decision
- FX option expiries for 12 August 10am New York cut
- China president Xi reportedly held phone talks with Brazil president Lula
It’s been another slow session in terms of data releases and newsflow as everyone’s awaiting the US CPI report.
We got the RBA monetary policy announcement today where the central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps as widely expected and didn’t offer much in terms of forward guidance other than the usual data-dependency. The market is expecting another rate cut by year-end (36 bps) with 35% probability of a move coming at the next meeting in September. The Australian employment report on Thursday will likely influence expectations.
The UK employment report came mostly in line with expectations with the usual divergence between the official data showing job gains and private data showing job losses. Wage growth eased a little but overall the report didn’t change anything in terms of interest rates expectations. The market is still fully pricing in the next cut for February 2026 with 55% probability of a move in December 2025.
In the markets, we’ve seen mostly rangebound price action with slight gains for the dollar. That’s something we’ve also seen yesterday despite a lack of fundamental catalysts. There could be some hedging activity into a potentially hot CPI.
The CPI will be the last major event for the month before the Jackson Hole Symposium where Fed Chair Powell could signal a cut in September (barring a hot CPI). Keep an eye also on Fed speakers in the next days as that will show the sentiment heading into the September FOMC meeting (right now, the majority seems to be leaning for a cut).
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.