- We are more confident on inflation but not sufficiently confident
- We will know a little more in April but a lot more in June
- Governing Council agreed on new statement on capital market union, to be released later
That’s as clear of a hint at when rate cuts are coming as you’re going to get. It aligns with the market, which is pricing in a small chance of a cut on April 11 but a certainty of a cut in June.
- There was a broad consensus that we will get more data in June
- There was a broad agreement that we won’t change our view based on one single data point
- The data so far isn’t durable enough at the moment to give us sufficient confidence
- Decision was unanimous
- I’m not saying we need to 2% inflation to take a decision on cutting rates
- Market expectations seem to be converging better [to ECB projections]
- We did not discuss cuts for this meeting but we are just beginning to discuss the dialing back of interest rates
We haven’t learned much from this press conference. The euro sagged on the lower inflation forecasts but has rebounded with Lagarde putting an emphasis on June for the likelihood of a cut, rather than April.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com. Source