Market is pricing the BOJ to end negative rates in January 2024, a massive shift

Via Bloomberg (gated) on the big shift in market pricing since Ueda’s comments reported over the weekend (ICYMI: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Ueda comments send USD/JPY plunging)


  • Most economists say regardless of timing, the next change for YCC will be its scrapping after the bank essentially widened its ceiling for 10-year yields to around 1% in July. “There is a chance of an early policy shift,” said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management Co. “Every policy meeting has become live since Ueda took the helm.”
  • As of Tuesday, overnight-indexed swaps indicated the central bank would exit negative rates in January, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. After the July policy meeting market pricing suggested an exit in September 2024.

The Nikkei say January seems to be the earliest for an end to negative rates, in brief:

  • But there is a sense at the BOJ that December is too soon
    • The scheduled Dec. 18-19 meeting may coincide with a discussion of changes to the tax code
  • A January decision to end negative interest rates appears to be a more realistic scenario, with practical factors delaying implementation to February.
    • The BOJ is set to update its economic and price outlook for fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2025 at that time, giving it material to help explain the basis for the policy change.
  • Waiting until April would let the central bank see the actual results of spring wage negotiations

Ueda walking a tightrope

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at Source