It’s going to be a dramatic day in markets as we reprice everything based on the war in Iran. Oil is obviously the big asset to watch but I’d warn that there was heavy front-running in the lead-up to the war. I’d estimate a premium of $5-8 so there is an incentive for the people who bought the rumor to sell strength on the ‘fact’.
In FX, there are some decent bids in the US dollar and the yen indicated, though it’s still very, very thin.
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Euro: -0.0056 Last: 1.1757
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Japanese Yen: 0.04 Last: 156.07
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British Pound: 0.0000 Last: 1.3484
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Swiss Franc: -0.0012 Last: 0.7675
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Canadian Dollar: 0.0014 Last: 1.3656
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Australian Dollar: -0.0064 Last: 0.7049
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New Zealand: -0.0045 Last: 0.5951
I would guess this is a bit of smokescreen for some pairs like USD/CAD as the NZD and AUD are likely giving the best indication of the underlying mood in markets.
Another decent barometer is bitcoin, which is trading at $65,379, down around 2%. Again, that isn’t showing any kind of panic in markets but, rather, a moderately higher risk premium.
In the next hour or two we will get a better sense of how things are developing as Tokyo comes on line.
All economic data today can be safely ignored but we are slated for Australian Q4 business inventories. Instead, focus will be on Iran. On March 5, the Chinese National People’s Congress kicks off and that’s the highlight in the Asia-Pac week.
The latest headlines are pointing to a Daily Mail article saying fighting could go on for four weeks. I’d imagine the market takes that as a significant positive (and negative for oil) although this can easily go sideways, as wars tend to do.
The main event of the day is going to be the open of oil trading.
Eamonn is off this week.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.