Major banks see gold pushing toward new highs as central-bank demand, geopolitics and prospective Fed easing reinforce bullion’s appeal.
Summary:
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Morgan Stanley sees gold reaching $5,700/oz in H2
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Geopolitical risk and central-bank buying drive demand
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ETF inflows expected to strengthen as rates ease
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Fed rate cuts in 2026 seen as supportive tailwind
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Société Générale forecasts gold at $6,000/oz
Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to extend their rally into the second half of the year, forecasting bullion could reach US$5,700 per ounce, underpinned by a powerful mix of geopolitical risk, sustained central-bank buying, and renewed investor inflows.
The bank argues that gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal remains firmly intact amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty and persistent fragmentation in global trade and financial systems. Central-bank demand continues to act as a structural pillar, with purchases remaining resilient even at historically high price levels. Morgan Stanley highlighted Poland’s recent accumulation as emblematic of a broader trend among emerging and mid-sized economies seeking to diversify reserves away from traditional currency assets.
Investor demand is also re-emerging as a supportive factor. Morgan Stanley expects exchange-traded fund inflows to strengthen as financial conditions ease and real yields soften, particularly if global monetary policy pivots toward accommodation.
Looking ahead, the bank sees prospective Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 as an additional tailwind, lowering opportunity costs and reinforcing physical demand from both institutional and private investors. Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley views gold’s rally as fundamentally driven rather than purely speculative.
The bullish outlook is echoed elsewhere on the Street. Société Générale sees gold climbing even further, projecting prices could reach US$6,000 per ounce by year-end, citing similar demand dynamics and a growing appetite for hard assets amid currency and geopolitical uncertainty.
Taken together, the forecasts reinforce the view that gold’s role is shifting from cyclical hedge to strategic allocation, with central-bank behaviour and policy uncertainty anchoring demand well beyond traditional inflation-driven cycles.
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if you are sick of gold, perhaps a look at silver?
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.