MUFG are expecting a Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control tweak at this week’s policy meeting

The Bank of Japan meet on the 27th and 28th.

Goldman Sachs expect a tweak:

Goldman Sachs are still expecting the Bank of Japan will tweak YCC policy this week

But mostly expectations are for no change:

Bank of Japan meet this week, July 27-28 – no change seen to yield curve control (YCC)

October is now the month most cited as the likely timing for a BOJ policy change

This summary is from eFX on what MUFG are expecting:

Key Points

1. Recent CPI Data: The latest Japanese CPI report showed that both headline and core inflation increased to an annual rate of 3.3% in June. Even after eliminating energy costs, the BOJ’s core inflation indicator remains high at 4.2%.

2. Anticipated Inflation Trends: Inflation is predicted to decelerate through the latter part of the year, largely due to the disinflationary influence of falling energy and food costs.

3. BoJ Policy Pressure: If inflation remains more persistent than anticipated during its decline and there’s a continuous surge in wage growth in the second half of the year, the BoJ might face increased pressure to tighten its policy.

4. YCC Adjustment: MUFG’s Tokyo analysts remain firm in their view that the BoJ will make adjustments to the YCC in the upcoming meeting, potentially leading to a stronger yen. However, they believe it might take more time for the BoJ to completely end negative rates in Japan.

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com. Source