Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 54 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 26 bps (88% probability of no change at …
Prior -2.2% PPI +0.3% vs +0.3% y/y expected Prior +0.7% Looking at the breakdown, the main drag was actually energy prices which declined by 2.1% …
Strong euro may increase the risk of undershooting on inflation Closely watching exchange rate volatility Don’t see any inflationary effects from US tariffs ECB is …
Prior 47.9 That’s the sixth month running that total activity has fallen but at least at a lesser pace in June. That being said, new …
Prior -0.7% Retail sales y/y +1.3% vs +3.7% prior In the three months to May 2025, retail sales fell by 0.1% in value and by …
Germany’s construction sector remains in contraction territory, but at least the rate of decline slowed towards the end of Q2. That is helped by a …
China is playing hardball here as they are not going to endorse the reported tentative deal with French cognac makers from last week. For some …
Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost yesterday as the US NFP report came out better than expected and triggered a hawkish repricing in interest …