- Unemployment rate in a narrow range for the last year
- Labor market conditions broadly in balance
- Labor market not a source of inflationary pressures
- Surveys show heightened uncertainty, unclear how uncertainty will affect outlook
- Surveys mention tariffs as a driving factor
- New administration is embarking on policy changes, but uncertainty around the changes is high
- Net affect of policy changes is what matters
- We do not need to be in a hurry, we will await further clarity
The line that “We do not need to be in a hurry” has become a policy signal now as he repeats it. At some point he will stop saying that and the market will interpret it as an imminent move.
- Uncertainty today is unusually elevated
- Have seen some signs of increased tightness in money markets
- If economy remains strong, we can maintain policy restraint for longer
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.