- A risk that slow pass-through of tariffs starts to look like persistent inflation.
- The labor market has demonstrated significant downside risk.
- As risk come more into about policy needed to move to being more neutral.
- If Fed moves too quickly in May leave the inflation job unfinished.
- Data since the July meeting shows labor market has softened considerably.
- Will not try to pinpoint breakeven rate of employment. Standard error itself is perhaps 50 K.
- Breakeven rate of job growth has come down a great deal.
- Range of plausible numbers could go to negative given the 50K standard error
- The fact the unemployment rate has barely moved is quite remarkable.
- Research points to longer legs for policy to influence jobs and inflation.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.